Why Ron DeSantis Should Not Run For President

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Governor Ron DeSantis is currently experiencing one of the worst stretches in the lead up to a likely presidential announcement in American history. Normally, prospective candidates experience a boom in their polls in the period before a looming announcement, as was the case with Donald Trump in 2015. This occurs as grassroots enthusiasm builds and donor interest mounts, which generates publicity to help springboard an eventual formal declaration. This is almost always true for candidates with the unique notoriety of Ron DeSantis, currently the most powerful Republican office holder in the country, who would not otherwise need a book tour and $200 million war chest to generate enormous publicity. The fact that DeSantis does have those things, to say nothing of his being featured in major media exposes – which have included high-profile interviews with Fox News and Piers Morgan in recent weeks – would seem to create a perfect storm of conditions to set up a formidable presidential challenge.

Which makes it even more jarring that as DeSantis dedicates more of his time to campaigning (relative to governing Florida), his polling and general standing within the Republican Party has apparently taken a nosedive. Indeed, by many reports, DeSantis is coming off the heels of one of the worst stretches in his political career over these past few weeks. Reports of donor interest waning permeate the news cycle seemingly by the day. All this bad news has been in addition to his tanking poll numbers, which seem to only get worse with each new poll release, portending a nightmarish scenario for his surrogates who could well face a campaign that is dead on arrival.

Meanwhile, on the PR front, DeSantis has fared even worse. Many have perceived a noticeable tonal shift in the messaging of DeSantis’s digital acolytes, the loose coalition of formal and informal operatives who saturate social media networks like Twitter on the daily with pro-DeSantis messaging. In recent weeks, observers have noted their messaging has sounded more panicked and desperate, rather than constructive and positive. Although it is perhaps impossible to gauge how digital messaging translates to real world polling, anecdotal evidence suggests that many pro-Trump voters otherwise receptive to DeSantis have been turned off by the latter’s hostile messaging. The reasons, albeit complicated, are likely due to the timing of the Trump attacks, which have occurred as President Trump undergoes a white martyrdom of sorts in what amounts to one of the most egregious miscarriages of justice, rendered by a rogue, George Soros-funded District Attorney, in American history.

This political persecution has only further endeared President Trump’s image to the Republican electorate, and candidates – like Vivek Ramaswamy – that have been smart to recognize this fact have correspondingly enjoyed approval bumps in return for their support. In addition to messaging, DeSantis has suffered from a number of optical faux pas while on the campaign circuit, being photographed in a rather unflattering pose, in one notable example, while surrounded by a group of onlookers at a campaign event who looked so obviously disinterested by what the Governor had to say. In another recent case, DeSantis received an unwelcome reception in New York state, just days before President Trump’s indictment in which he appeared before a NYC judge. DeSantis was interrupted mid-speech by a group of hecklers in the audience who chanted “endorse Donald Trump!,” creating an embarrassing scene for the Florida Governor. Witnesses to the event noted that several attendees were even seen cheering on the hecklers, later on agreeing that the Governor’s remarks were “boring,” prompting a noticeable percentage of the two or three hundred listener audience to depart early. Indeed, many in attendance barely knew who the Governor was, mispronouncing his name “Santis,” while flaunting pro-Trump paraphernalia – apparently oblivious to any infighting between the two men. By one eyewitness account, interest in the Florida Governor was so little that a stand had to be set up to sell pro-DeSantis merchandise to audience members before the event started as they assembled to wait in line outside the venue.

Sinking polling, waning donor interest, and disastrous PR would be enough to turn off most normal candidates from the prospect of a presidential run. The fact that all of this occurs as a former President, who remains extremely popular with the base, is being subjected to an unprecedented witch hunt that has plunged the United States dangerously close to banana republic-like territory, makes the timing of a would-be DeSantis 2024 run inopportune. Even as he embarks on a “shadow campaign” (of questionable legality), DeSantis has depleted significant political cachet that he built up over his years serving as Florida’s Governor. DeSantis has allowed his opponents to remake him from a rock-ribbed conservative governor to a pawn of the DC establishment and global interests, the same groups behind Alvin Bragg’s prosecutorial hitjob, that are now working on overdrive to block Trump out of the Oval Office. For his part, DeSantis has only added fuel to the fire on those accusations, issuing what can at best be described as mealy-mouth responses to the onslaught against President Trump, while remaining silent (if not actively praising) those groups – the Bushes, the Murdoch family, Karl Rove, Club for Growth, Ken Griffin, Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan – which are busily at work behind the scenes to drive the nail into Trump’s political coffin.

DeSantis’s actions may win over DC’s consultant class or a select group of wealthy Palm Beach donors, but they are absolutely going to turn off a critical mass of the electorate, who remain loyal to Donald Trump and rightly perceive the Governor’s ambivalence as cowardice. If DeSantis were truly pro-MAGA, he would have stood unreservedly behind the 45^th President – denouncing, in the clearest of terms, Bragg’s persecution while unleashing the full power of Florida’s Executive Branch to protect one of his own citizens. Of course, it need not be said that a true statesman would recognize the seriousness of what is occurring in our country at the moment, and, realizing that the common good should always displace personal self-interest, step aside and allow President Trump to lead the party in 2024. Doing so would not only be advantageous for the country as a whole, obviously the most important outcome, but would also benefit DeSantis’s own political interests, showing that he could be a reliable and strong force on the side of the American people as their country undergoes one its most challenging moments in its history.

In the meantime, DeSantis would be better served allocating his energy on his home state, which might look like a conservative sanctuary today, but could easily revert right back into a swing state, if not worse, once DeSantis leaves his post for good. As it now stands, DeSantis does not have a legitimate successor. Some of the most prominent Republican congresspersons in Florida – Matt Gaetz, Anna Paulina Luna, Byron Donalds, and Cory Mills (plus a growing list of others) – have all endorsed Donald Trump over their own Governor for 2024. Meanwhile, those waiting on the sidelines about to or have just recently entered congressional races, names like Anthony Sabatini and Laura Loomer, who represent the next generation of Florida Republican politicians, have decisively supported Donald Trump (while strongly criticizing DeSantis in turn), which is perhaps the greatest indictment of his leadership. If DeSantis cannot even court his own lawmakers – who also happen to be some of the most prominent Republicans in the country – in addition to the next generation of up-and-comers does not bode well for his leadership prospects at home. In particular, it speaks poorly of his ability to form a coalition of supporters to carry on his legacy. Lest it be forgotten, DeSantis only squeaked out a victory by the slimmest of margins when he first ran for governor against a radical leftwing candidate (who was later convicted of a felony) in Andrew Gillum in 2018. Only after Trump’s last-minute intervention was DeSantis carried over the finish line, salvaging what might otherwise have been the end to a political career that had been on life support.

Beyond the issues with succession, DeSantis has an itinerary of matters he must attend to at home: from tamping down Florida’s extraordinarily high abortion rates, to combating corporate wokeism, to taming ongoing and systemic problems regarding illegal immigration. And those are just retail political issues: even more existentially, he further faces a hostile DOJ and FBI which continue to scapegoat Donald Trump, who, as full-time resident of Florida, must deal with these abuses of the justice system with little to no institutional support from Washington, D.C. DeSantis should therefore use what resources he has as governor of the third most populous state in the union to not only protect Donald Trump, but lead a counter-insurrection against a power-hungry deep-state, which is hellbent to annihilating Donald Trump and all that he stands for. Florida is well-positioned to set a national standard for how red states might consolidate state power – and become less dependent on the federal government – to establish rightwing preserves from the systematic decline that has permeated virtually every major American institution today. All it takes is a strong governor with the will and brains to execute that potentiality.

If DeSantis were to read the room and focus on all that must still be done as Florida governor, it would benefit both the country and his own future political career. A statesman would recognize that now is not the time to challenge Trump head-to-head in a primary – his campaign would not only be dead on arrival, but more devastatingly, he would be likely committing political suicide. All the signs foreshadow a train wreck waiting to happen if he declares now. If DeSantis were a prudent statesman, he would heed these warnings and step aside for Donald Trump, who had been illegitimately denied his rightful second term, recognizing that both he and the country would have much to gain from that valiant act.  

Paul Ingrassia is a two-time Claremont Fellow: he was the Jack Roth Charitable Foundation John Marshall Fellow for 2022 and a Publius Fellow in 2020. Mr. Ingrassia graduated from Cornell Law School in 2022. His Twitter handle is: @PaulIngrassia.